Decentralized, uncensorable smart contract platforms without a direct value capture are down only from here. ETH and SOL will never rise above their all time highs (denominated in both USD and BTC).
These networks have been a credible opposition to the existing financial system. Competition breeds innovation. It’s pulling the financial system into the 21st century. 24/7 trading for a global world, accessible to all (at least more), more transparency, and open source.
Crypto and what it’s created has broken down the walls and forced the innovations it’s created to be taken seriously. It’s been so loud and useful it can’t be ignored.
So, what have we gotten?
Stablecoins
Equity and cashflow-backed tokens
Increased access and 24/7 markets
Hyperliquid and Tempo are what I foresee as the future. They are open ledgers more accessible than TradFi, but neither is decentralized enough to be uncensorable.
Tempo’s code is open source, but the validator set is hand-picked (Visa, Stripe, and MoneyGram). It’s “on their roadmap” to become permissionless, but with no date, or even guidance on a date.
Anyone can run a Hyperliquid validator, but every validator runs a closed-source binary. You’re trusting Jeff (what happened to trustlessness 😔). Hyperliquid has incredible volume and revenue numbers. It has product market fit. It’s the de facto place for off hours oil pricing.
To reiterate - ETH and SOL have no inherent value - their gas fees are not meaningful. And for the last ~decade, many thought there was room enough in the collective consciousness to have a silver and bronze to the digital gold that is Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, as I see it, is still Bitcoin. There is no inherent value to bitcoin. Just like any currency. USD and Bitcoin both have no claim to future cashflows of anything. USD does have a very strong sink (required to pay taxes with it) but it also can be printed unlimitedly. It is a credible opposition as a store of value to an infinitely inflatable currency and logistically complex physical stores of value like gold.
Crypto has helped clarify what I value and sharpen the lens through which I see the world: self-sovereignty, open systems, and decentralization as a counterweight to the concentration of power.
And it really has been about the friends we’ve made along the way. We first connect around whatever the protocol du jour is, get nerdsniped trying to understand it, one beer turns into four, next thing you know we’re at burning man together. Crypto has been a great place to make friends that I not only share interests with, but values, too.
A lot of the same friends from crypto are still in my most active group chats. But we have a new topic now: private, local, personalized AI. Of course we’re using and talking about the latest frontier models to push the boundaries of what we’re building, but when the M5 Mac Studios drop, I assure you we’ll all be canceling our meetings for the next week.
If the decentralized crypto rails have forced banks to make finance tools more accessible, then decentralized, open source, local intelligence might be able to nudge the closed source labs to do the same.
I remain optimistic that a censorship-resistant global economy is a net positive for the world. However, it's not clear we're actually moving closer to that vision. Appreciate your perspective as always.